While the regularly released Real Estate Board statistics provide an immensely useful overview of the market on a monthly basis, many of my clients often stop me to ask, “Dirk, what’s really going on out there?" I’ll share the inside track here that I’d usually walk them through, hopefully in comprehensive enough detail to help you make some sense of where things are headed from where I sit. Of course, if you have any questions, you can always shoot me a text or an email.
Overall, the economy’s position in the credit cycle, with rates rising and borrowing becoming more difficult for consumers, coupled with government interventions designed to cool the market has lead to a somewhat balanced (or even stagnant) market in Victoria, with increased inventory compared to recent numbers, but still well below the 10 year average. The market for Single Family Homes in particular market has softened, especially listings over $1 million, as a result of the factors above. As a result, there is still some stale inventory that has failed to sell as the market has slowed. This is inventory is gradually being reduced as we see a number of these homes coming off the market, Attractive, reasonably priced properties are absolutely still selling well, sometimes even bringing in multiple offers. As of this fall, Victoria’s real estate market has far less inventory in the more affordable $750K-800K-and-under bracket than we have seen in recent years, which contributes to this pressure. Given their more accessible price point, condos continue to perform well.
In addition, More advanced softening in the Vancouver market has led to a drop-off in the number of ‘Vancouver Refugees’ selling off and purchasing properties on the Island. In fact, this declining real estate trend is happening elsewhere, not just here - price declines are showing up in the news from areas in Europe, Oceania, and the U.S.
In Canada and the U.S., interest rates are expected to continue to rise, further increasing the cost of borrowing and putting downward pressure on demand, however, broader economic fundamentals appear to be keeping steady, with inflation reaching its 2% target.
What does this all mean? Expect a slightly slower, cooler market in the next six months, particularly as active buyers and sellers who haven’t succeeded in their aims this year begin to back off toward winter and wait until spring. I expect that higher interest rates leading into 2019 will continue to impact demand and the shift away from a strong sellers’ market will continue. Prices should flatten out, although I don’t see a significant decline on the way. This should contribute to a little more inventory available in the upcoming spring market, so for buyers - particularly those who are less dependent on financing to purchase properties - there will be more opportunities.