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Market Updates

November 2018 Victoria BC Real Estate Market Conditions

The Victoria real estate market chills out for winter

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A total of 498 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this November, 25.8 per cent fewer than the 671 properties sold in November of last year and a 16.7 per cent decrease from October 2018. Sales of condominiums were down 30.9 per cent from last year in November with 152 units sold. Sales of single family homes were down 20.8 per cent from 2017 with 267 sold this November.

"We certainly anticipated a difference this year in terms of sales for November compared to last year," says Victoria Real Estate Board President Kyle Kerr. "This time last year, the government announced plans to change mortgage lending qualification rules and our market saw a rush of activity as buyers tried to beat that new lending criteria which was rolled out January first. Our ten-year average of units sold for the month of November is 515, which is likely a better comparison than to the unusual market conditions we saw last year."

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in November 2017 was $832,800, while the benchmark value for the same home in November 2018 increased by 3.9 per cent to $865,200, lower than October's value of $881,000. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in November 2017 was $456,200, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in November 2018 increased by 9.7 per cent to $500,500, slightly less than October's value of $502,600.

There were a total of 2,343 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of November 2018, an increase of 32.8 per cent compared to November 2017 but 6.7 per cent fewer than the month previous.

"Inventory continues to be low compared to historic averages," adds President Kerr. "The ten-year average for active inventory in November is 3,204, so although it has improved compared to last year, we are still low on choice for buyers. At the same time, waning demand has meant that there is less urgency in our market right now, which can benefit buyers and sellers. The market tends to naturally slow down in the winter, so I'd expect we will have a more balanced market heading into the new year."

October 2018 Victoria BC Real Estate Market Conditions

The Victoria real estate market's return to balance not linear, but also not unexpected

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A total of 598 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this October, 9.9 per cent fewer than the 664 properties sold in October of last year, but a 12.2 per cent increase from September 2018. Sales of condominiums were down 15.5 per cent from last year in October with 180 units sold, but up 20.8 per cent when compared to September 2018. Sales of single family homes were down 14.7 per cent from 2017 with 289 sold this October, 1.4 per cent more than the previous month.

"We continue to see the housing market shift into a more balanced state, though the trajectory is not smooth," says Victoria Real Estate Board President Kyle Kerr. "This month had slower sales compared to last year and a slightly lower level of inventory coming into the market, but it also had an increase in sales from last month, which may surprise some people. The moderating changes over last year have been punctuated with some competition and price pressure on lower and mid-priced homes while the upper end of the market has softened slightly. Right now pricing is key across all segments as we transition to a more balanced market."

There were a total of 2,510 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of October 2018, an increase of 31.8 per cent compared to October 2017 but 5.1 per cent fewer than the month previous.

"The market is definitely reacting to the changes in mortgage lending requirements," adds President Kerr. "Lending was made tougher to dampen the market and these measures have certainly had an impact on purchasing power. The threat of the looming Speculation and Vacancy tax has also cooled development in our area, which is unfortunate because the only way to create affordable homes in our area is to build them. We hope that moving forward the municipal, provincial and federal governments will work collaboratively to enable more supply at all levels of housing by funding public / private partnerships to support the increase of home stock in our area. We hope that aside from taxation and mortgage rules, governments will work together to ensure a future supply in our area to stabilize prices in the long term."

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in October 2017 was $830,100, while the benchmark value for the same home in October 2018 increased by 6.1 per cent to $881,000, slightly lower than September's value of $883,700. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in October 2017 was $457,500, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in October 2018 increased by 9.86 per cent to $502,600, slightly less than September's value of $503,000.

September 2018 Victoria BC Real Estate Market Conditions

Victoria Real Estate Market Continues to Stabilize

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A total of 533 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this September, 16.7 per cent fewer than the 640 properties sold in September of last year, and a 10.3 per cent decrease from August 2018. Sales of condominiums were down 30.4 per cent from last year in September with 149 units sold. Sales of single family homes were down 9.2 per cent from 2017 with 285 sold this September.

"This year's housing market has continued to behave as we've expected, moderating after the record setting pace of 2016 and adjusting to various government measures such as tightening mortgage qualification rules that were intended to cool the market," says Victoria Real Estate Board President Kyle Kerr. "We continue to see a reduction in sales when we compare to recent years and prices stabilizing across the market, with some variation in value in niche, higher end homes."

There were a total of 2,646 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of September 2018, an increase of 5 per cent compared to the month of August and 33.9 per cent more than the 1,976 active listings for sale at the end of September 2017.

"If you are considering buying or selling a home, you need to understand your local market, particularly in the context of your property type and price point," adds President Kerr. "Micro markets in our area behave very differently as they are influenced by different pressures. The under $800,000 housing market in some areas is under tremendous pressure as many buyers compete for these homes. The multimillion-dollar market in other areas is currently experiencing less pressure and we can see price flexibility coming into play in the 1.5 million dollar plus market. And although we saw a bump in inventory at the start the year, those inventory levels have stabilized as well. So buyers still face a market with much less inventory available than the historical average. Your local REALTOR® can help you understand the best way forward for your selling or buying plans based on current and granular data and market insights."

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in September 2017 was $832,000, while the benchmark value for the same home in September 2018 increased by 6.2 per cent to $883,700, slightly lower than August's value of $888,300. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in September 2017 was $457,700, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in September 2018 increased by 9.9 per cent to $503,000, exactly the same as August's value.

August 2018 Victoria BC Real Estate Market Conditions

Victoria's Real Estate Market Simmers at the End of Summer

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A total of 594 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this August, 19.3 per cent fewer than the 736 properties sold in August of last year, and an 8.8 per cent decrease from July 2018. Sales of condominiums were down 5.3 per cent from last year in August with 195 units sold. Sales of single family homes were down 22.1 per cent from 2017 with 304 sold this August.

"Prices in our market are quite flat right now, with a slow, long-term trend toward a more balanced market," says Victoria Real Estate Board President Kyle Kerr. "Listings have remained relatively static for months after an initial increase last spring. However, this plateau has included more high value inventory and similar to last month, fewer single family homes for sale under $750,000. Thirty per cent fewer homes this year were listed for sale at $750,000 or less than in the year previous, which means there is still pressure on lower priced homes in the Core and other popular areas. We do see a levelling out of prices month-over-month which is one factor helping to slowly return us to a more balanced market."

There were a total of 2,519 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of August 2018, a decrease of 3.4 per cent compared to the month of July but 31.4 per cent more than the 1,917 active listings for sale at the end of August 2017.

"Many demand-side measures were introduced this year - including a stress test on mortgages - which altered many buyers' purchasing power," adds President Kerr. "These new policies are having the desired effect of slowing the market, though it is likely that over time the market will normalize these changed conditions. Our strong local economy and high employment rates may bolster demand into the fall as people return to work after their summer vacations. Fall numbers will be an interesting indicator of our year to come as we continue to track low home inventory in a changing marketplace. For an up-to-the-minute understanding of your local market as fall sales unfold, connect with your local REALTOR®."

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in August 2017 was $830,800, while the benchmark value for the same home in August 2018 increased by 6.9 per cent to $888,300, slightly lower than July's value of $888,700. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in August 2017 was $453,900, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in August 2018 increased by 10.8 per cent to $503,000, slightly lower than July's value of $507,700.

July 2018 Victoria BC Real Estate Market Conditions

Victoria Housing Market Still Finding Its Balance

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A total of 651 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this July, 17.6 per cent fewer than the 790 properties sold in July of last year, and an 8.1 per cent decrease from June 2018. Sales of condominiums were down 22.6 per cent from last year in July with 188 units sold. Sales of single family homes were down 16.5 per cent from 2017 with 340 sold this July.

"We are in a different market now than what we have seen for the past two years," says Victoria Real Estate Board President Kyle Kerr. "And while we see inventory creeping up after the drought in 2017, especially in the multi-million-dollar range, across our region there are 30 per cent fewer homes listed for sale under $750,000 than this time last year. This means that if you are shopping in the $750,000-or-less bracket, you are in a fast-moving market with low inventory. For example, of the 176 single family detached properties sold in our Core and Malahat regions during the month of July, only 59 (34%) were listed for $750,000 or less. And of those, 28 (47%) sold at or over list price. This illustrates the high demand for homes at or below this price point, and the pressure that is still pushing that segment of our market. If you are looking for a home priced at $1.5 million or above, there is more selection than last year and those homes are sitting on the market longer. For the first seven months of 2017 there were 481 single family detached properties for sale listed at $1.5 million or above. For the same time period in 2018, there were 664 properties for sale in this range, an increase of 27.6 per cent."

There were a total of 2,607 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of July 2018, an increase of 0.5 per cent compared to the month of June and 35.7 per cent more than the 1,921 active listings for sale at the end of July 2017.

"Each year we tend to see a plateau in inventory over the summer months," adds President Kerr. "It is possible that we will see more inventory come into the market through the fall when there is often a burst of activity in our market, but it's hard to predict how that inventory might be priced. Ideally, we will see more inventory come in at under the $750,000 level to help push our housing market into more balanced territory across all segments."

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in July 2017 was $834,200, while the benchmark value for the same home in July 2018 increased by 5.5 per cent to $880,000, slightly lower than June's value of $889,600. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in July 2017 was $442,100, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in July 2018 increased by 12.1 per cent to $495,700, slightly higher than June's value of $496,500.

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