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2017Q4 Housing Forecast Released from BCREA

The BC Real Estate Association Housing Forecast is out today. It mirrors what I've been predicting, which is the expectation that in response to low inventory, gradually rising interest rates, and a decrease in borrowing power from new OSFI regulations, market volume is slowing. The number of sales in BC is expected to be down just under 9% for 2017, and another 10% for 2018, which should mean a more balanced market to work in, and while we aren't expecting to see home prices go down overall, the rapid rise in prices that we've seen in the past few years is predicted to level off to low single-digit increases. If this all comes to pass, I think it's good news for consumers and Realtors, giving everyone a little room to breathe.

The full forecast is available here.

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October 2017 Victoria BC Real Estate Market Conditions

Victoria Real Estate Market Slowly Stabilizing after a Record Breaking 2016

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A total of 664 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this October, 9.7 per cent fewer than the 735 properties sold in October last year.

"As expected, we saw fewer sales than this time last year," notes Victoria Real Estate Board President Ara Balabanian. "Looking at the longer term picture however, sales last month were 17.1 per cent above the ten year average of 567 properties for the month of October, so the market is still very active here in Victoria, and this is in spite of the ongoing low inventory levels."

There were 1,905 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of October 2017, a decrease of 3.6 per cent compared to the month of September and 1.7 per cent fewer than the 1,938 active listings for sale at the end of October 2016.

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in October 2016 was $752,000. The benchmark value for the same home in October 2017 has increased by 9.3 per cent to $821,900, but is lower than July's value of $834,200.

"The fact that we've seen such a controlled levelling off in the market directly following a year which felt so uncontrollable in terms of demand and pressure on prices illustrates the depth and stability of the Victoria market. An unstable market may have experienced a heavy correction or shift, whereas in our market sales are moderating at a reasonable rate." adds President Balabanian. "In the coming months we expect to see less inventory on the market, because the year end changes buyer and seller behaviours, their focus shifts to holidays and winter weather. One unknown influence that may play on the winter market is the upcoming mortgage stress test. Some buyers may move their purchasing timelines forward to make their home purchases before the stress test on uninsured buyers (those with a down payment of 20 per cent or more) becomes required January 1."

September 2017 Victoria BC Real Estate Market Conditions

Victoria Real Estate Market Changes Tempo for Autumn

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A total of 640 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this September, 18.1 per cent fewer than the 781 properties sold in September last year.

"We can certainly feel the difference in the current market when we compare to last year's record breaking numbers. Last year the pace of the market was intense, there was a lot of pressure on pricing and demand," notes Victoria Real Estate Board President Ara Balabanian. "Now the tempo of the market is trending slowly - very slowly - towards more balanced conditions. Recently we've seen overall price increases level out, which can indicate slightly less demand, and inventory is building."

There were 1,976 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of September 2017, an increase of 3.1 per cent compared to the month of August and 4.1 per cent fewer than the 2,061 active listings for sale at the end of September 2016.

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in September 2016 was $742,200. The benchmark value for the same home in September 2017 has increased by 10.9 per cent to $823,100.

"Simply because we've seen sales drop from last year is not dire or unexpected news for our local real estate market." adds President Balabanian. "The ten year average for sales in September is 573 properties and the month exceeded that average by more than ten per cent, which indicates we're still in an active market. And of course there are neighbourhoods that are still tracking up in terms of value from last year. It's for reasons like these that now more than ever it makes sense to seek the assistance of a local REALTOR® to sell or buy your home."

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Dirk VanderWal
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Victoria, BC V8V 3K8


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